The Spurs Rules

Ah, playoff time again. Nothing like watching a more talented team get demolished by good coaching and their own personal poor defensive play. It's all too familiar territory, any Suns fan will tell you about it, at length, just before they break down in tears. But what if, and this is purely speculation, the Suns were actually defensively prepared to stop the Spurs from getting any shot they wanted on the floor? Like I said, purely speculation, but if this were to happen, there would be certain adjustments to make on the defensive end. (For instance, no buying popcorn from vendors when the ball is in play.) Now, I think the Suns would be able to do this, were they to be given proper instruction on how to play defense against the Spurs. So, without further ado, the Spurs rules! These are the plays that the Suns have gotten burned on a million jillion times this season, and how to stop them...
- Always go under picks on Tony Parker. You would always rather have him take a 19-22 foot jump shot than get in the lane. Always. I don't care if he just hit a no loot around the back full court shot with 19 seconds left on the shot clock, just go under the pick. This allows Shaq to remain firmly anchored to the painted area, as he tends to be regardless, without giving Tony Parker the ability to get anywhere on the floor he wants while simultaneously giving him a passing lane to the roller.
- Unless Manu has hit at least two three pointers in the past 6 minutes, you go under the pick for the same exact reason you go under the pick with Parker. Manu is a streaky shooter who can hit that three pointer if you go under *sometimes*, but it's not within the flow of the offense and you want to make him take those shots more than you want to give Duncan a wide open lay up.
- When the guard can't get under the pick because Duncan or Kurt Thomas sets a moving pick (It happens a lot), the big can't play middle field. The big has to move to contest the shot. Usually when this happens, it leads to a wide open lay up by Fabricio Oberto when Duncan shovels it to him under the basket... but there's more to the plan! The SG or SF has to come over on the wing and pick up Oberto. Yes, you leave Michael Finley, Brent Barry or Bruce Bowen open from the wing or side, but it's better than a lay up. Always. There is roughly a 0.2% chance that Oberto will miss the wide open lay up, while there is roughly a 60% chance that one of those guys will miss the three point shot, and if everyone rotates back once the pass is made (That's what it's called when the big guy who stepped up to contest a shot goes back to his guy so the perimeter guys can cover their guys. It's a real part of defense, trust me on this one.), it will be a partially contested three point shot.
- This is only being run on Amare and Shaq, but primarily Amare and primarily with Michael Finley, but it's how Michael Finley has gotten basically every point he's had in the series. Finley will come off of a screen (or moving screen) from Kurt Thomas or Fabricio Oberto while Raja or Leandro chase valiantly through the screen. The problem with this is that Amare doesn't flash help. At all. He stares blankly at the guy he's guarding. If Amare gives a quick show once Finley gets the ball, Oberto or Thomas will make a move to roll to the basket. Amare's job is to flash the help then run back to Thomas/Oberto and make sure they aren't able to catch a lob pass from Finley.(Amare should be able to do this just fine...) This allows the jump shot to be at least mildly contest if Finley pulls up straight away and allows the wing guy time to get back in front of Finley if he doesn't pull up straight away.
I was pondering making some pictures illustrating these points in vivid detail, with bright shiny colors to keep the attention of the viewers, but it seemed like an awful lot of work for something that wasn't going to get used... so I'm content with putting these in word form. Hopefully the Suns manage a win tomorrow morning, and then we'll see about getting Mikey D a link to this.






7 Comments:
I was fixing to launch into a lengthy diatribe explaining my feelings right now, but I realized I had already written it . . . back in October. Here it is:
"I agree with your minutes breakdown, and that's a big concern for me (along with everyone else who's reading this I'm sure). It seems the top 7 guys will get 30+ minutes a night. Then there will be some situational minutes for Banks, Strawberry, Tucker, Skinner, etc. That will work just fine until somebody goes down with an injury or suspension (Nash's back?, Grant Hill's ankle?, Amare's lack of discipline?, ? ? ?). So D'Antoni must use the first half of the season to figure out who can fit in and where. Even if it means fewer wins. As we've seen time and time again, a short rotation works great until it gets even shorter. Then there's nobody to step in. D'Antoni's style of coaching will only work in the unlikely event that everybody remains available. And that's a bad gamble no matter how you look at it.
But . . . .
My biggest concern heading into this season is post defense. I don't think it will take long for teams to figure out the secret to crippling the Suns is getting Amare in foul trouble. Playing 30+ minutes defending the post is going to be a disaster on many nights. Amare is the Suns best scoring threat in the half court offense, and those possessions are critical at the end of a close game. Boris Diaw will take his turn defending the post as well, but I think that's putting a band aid on a broken bone. Boris doesn't have the physical mentality to defend the post in the closing minutes of a game when the refs swallow their whistle. So I see a lot of critical games coming down to the wire with Amare playing matador defense because he's got 5 fouls. And that's not going to bring a championship to the valley of the sun."
Back in October I was concerned about depth and DEFENSE. Sure enough, that's the reason the Suns will be headed for the first tee shortly. So, it's time to blow this thing up. This team is not going to get any better, and they can not win it all as currently configured. I was in favor of the Shaq trade, but now it looks like it will be two more seasons before there's any hope of competing for a championship. The Suns need to rebuild around Amare with a heavy, let me repeat, heavy emphasis on improving his defense. And the Suns need to extend his contract whenever possible. He's a superstar talent but needs to be humbled so that he is driven to improve. Hopefully Timmy D has done that. Barbosa will still be a Sun in 2010, and he'll be a starter. Boris will also be around, and he must work on his game in order to validate his contract. So now the Suns have the next two seasons to find and develop a point guard. And they must find an adequate center. Amare will never be able to handle the defensive requirementes of the center position.
Oops. I accidently posted that. Let me continue . . .
It pains me to say it, because I like him, but D'Antoni must go. His offense will not work, especially with the roster he's got now, and he simply doesn't develop young talent. And that's what the Suns MUST do now. Coach D puts all his chips on a small group of guys who play some amazing basketball when everything goes perfectly. But as we've learned, everything doesn't go perfectly. Microfracture surgery happens. Facial fractures happen. Playoff suspensions happen. Grant Hill gets hurt (seriously). And because of that, a deep and confident bench is crucial to playoff success. The regular season is the time to develop that bench, and D'Antoni simply doesn't do that. Steve Kerr must bring in a defensive minded coach who will develop what the Suns have for the future. Then some smart free agent signings for the 2010 season can put this franchise back on the upswing. But for now, it's going to be a hard fall. Brace yourself.
Russell
Oh yeah. I forgot to mention. Next season should be Steve Nash's last as a Sun. I love what he's done, and I'm glad I was on the train he pulled the last several years. But it's time to rebuild. And picking up his option in summer of 2009 would be foolish. That money should be used to start signing free agents who can contribute. Then the real cap flexibility kicks in summer 2010.
Russ
Considering that Nash and Shaq's contracts both go through 2009-10, seems like it'd be best to go with the 'blow it up' scenario after they both expire. Nash will probably be looking at retirement, Shaq will definitely be retiring then. $33.125M will be coming off the books from Nash and Shaq, plus Bell's $5.25 will expire. (he'll probably end up either signing for cheap or going somewhere else, I imagine.) We'll still have Alando, Amare, Leandro and Boris under contract for the 10/11 season and, presumably still DJ. (This assumes D'Antoni is fired between now and then and a coach shows up who actually develops young guys. Considering the fact that our current woes are purely defensive in nature, DJ would kind of make sense... but... yeaaaah...)
On another note, that's kind of an interesting idea for a front court. Play Boris/Leandro together starting with Boris running the offense and Leandro being the two guard, and they switch up on defense with Boris guarding the SG spot. (Which, in 2010/2011 would leave us with a line up of Diaw-Leandro-Free Agent #1-Amare-Free Agent #2, with theoretical contributions off the bench from Alando, DJ, and whatever other free agents happens to wander around.)
As of this moment, this is the list of contracts that are expiring, people who have player options and players with restrictions ("Maybe" means there's a qualifying offer the year before and they are technically a restricted free agent, restricted means they are restricted that year.)
There are some very interesting names in those groups though.
--Middle to high class free agents in 2010/11--
Joe Johnson
Rajon Rondo
Rip Hamilton
Amir Johnson
Jason Maxiell (Maybe)
Al Harrington
Tracy McGrady
Jermaine O'Neal
Danny Granger (Maybe)
Andrew Bynum (Maybe)
Mike Miller
Darko Milicic
Udonis Haslem
Bobby Simmons
Charlie Villanueva (Maybe)
Andrew Bogut (Maybe)
Chris Paul (Maybe)
David Lee (Maybe)
Hedo Turkoglu
Travis Outlaw
Martell Webster
Brandon Roy (Restricted)
Segrio Rodriguez (Restricted)
Brad Miller
Manu Ginobili
Luke Ridnour
Earl Watson
Damien Wilkins
Andrea Bargnani (Restricted)
Carlos Boozer
Mehmet Okur
Deron Williams (Maybe)
Ronnie Brewer (Restricted)
Brendan Haywood
--Player Option for 2010/11--
LeBron James
Dirk Nowitzki
Dwyane Wade
Michael Redd
Tyson Chandler
Chris Bosh
TJ Ford
According to HoopsHype.com, Nash's contract has a team option for the '09/'10 season. I'm suggesting it shouldn't be picked up. The Suns should use that money, or whatever portion of it Sarver is willing to spend, to sign a free agent or extend a young draft pick. Perhaps this years first round pick?
Russ
Unless Nash seriously falls off, good luck with that. In fact, it's really not a good idea as it stands. He's far too productive to just drop.
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